SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe weather risk appears negligible through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a pronounced upper trough/low over the Northeast and southeast Canada, while another similar feature moves ashore the CA coast today. In the low levels, a front will push northeast through New England today. A several hour window of opportunity will exist for low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front across southern New England. The 12 UTC OKX raob only showed around 200 J/kg MUCAPE in proximity to where weak convection has developed this morning. Model forecast soundings vary regarding the magnitude of instability (i.e., scant to weak) across southern New England this morning, casting some uncertainty on storm intensity. The scenario of a negligible risk for severe from weak/shallow convection appears most probable with this activity before it pushes east of the coast. Farther west over CA and the Desert Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will intermittently occur as a lobe of ascent and adequate PW facilitate the development of storms through early evening. ..Smith/Bentley.. 10/22/2025
