MD 2186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL AL AND WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025
Areas affected...coastal AL and western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270311Z - 270445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado is possible with potential intensification
of a transient supercell tracking along a quasi-stationary front.
Limited spatial extent and marginal nature of the tornado threat
will preclude a watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Multiple transient circulations have occurred over the
past 2-3 hours with a slow-moving, but persistent updraft that has
evolved from near Dauphin Island across a part of Mobile Bay into
Baldwin County, AL. Each circulation attempt has eventually
broadened/diminished amid weakness in the 1-3 km portion of the
hodograph, per the MOB VWP, and poor tropospheric lapse rates
sampled in available 00Z RAOBs. Nevertheless, this updraft may track
eastward along the quasi-stationary front that extends overland
across Pensacola to Santa Rosa Island. Potential for brief
tornadogenesis may persist through about 06Z along this corridor.
..Grams/Hart.. 10/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30518774 30558731 30568708 30418634 30278620 30308645
30328695 30268768 30518774
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
