MD 2187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270606Z - 270830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A localized risk of brief tornadoes/waterpsouts will
continue through the early morning hours while spreading eastward
across the western Florida Panhandle. Given the localized and and
conditional nature of the risk, a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a mesoscale
low/frontal wave over the far western FL Panhandle. A marine front
extends eastward across the remainder of the southern FL Panhandle
-- demarcating the northern bound of upper 60s to lower 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints. Ahead of the frontal wave, the EVX VWP is
sampling 35-kt east-southeasterly flow at 0.5 km AGL, which is
yielding a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (150-180 m2/s2 0-500
m SRH per EVX). As the frontal wave tracks eastward along the marine
front, a forced confluence zone/low-level warm-advection plume will
continue supporting thunderstorm development across the FL Panhandle
through the early morning hours. Given the implied enhanced
low-level streamwise vorticity and relatively moist boundary layer,
transient supercell structures will continue to pose a risk of brief
tornadoes/waterspouts. However, poor lapse rates and a very narrow
zone of surface-based effective-inflow-layer air should keep the
overall threat localized and conditional -- precluding the need for
a watch.
..Weinman/Smith.. 10/27/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30128757 30548760 30668740 30748698 30708644 30588571
30298534 30008541 29908579 30018684 30128757
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
