Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS D4/Sunday into D5/Monday, as a strong upstream shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Guidance varies regarding the strength and timing of a mid/upper-level cyclone that may develop within the southern portion of the initial large-scale trough across parts of the Southeast. The strongest solutions (such as the 30/00Z GFS) would support some strong-storm potential across parts of FL into the Coastal Carolinas, but the current consensus is for a persistent surface ridge to suppress inland low-level moisture return and limit the organized-severe threat. For D6/Tuesday and beyond, predictability decreases regarding the evolution of the upper pattern, but most guidance continues to depict a dearth of low-level moisture and instability across the CONUS through the middle of next week.
