SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Nov 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. Similar to previous forecast thinking (see below), a few strong wind gusts could accompany post-frontal convection as it spreads eastward across parts of western/central NY tonight -- aided by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and steepening lapse rates. Given that this activity will generally be evolving behind the stronger DCVA preceding the midlevel shortwave trough, an anticipated/favored cellular mode should keep any damaging-wind risk isolated. ..Weinman.. 11/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025/ ...Northeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic, with another lower-amplitude shortwave trough over Lower MI. Both of these waves are forecast to move eastward today, with the Mid-Atlantic wave moving offshore and the Lower MI wave progressing quickly across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Showers are anticipated along and ahead of the frontal band associated with the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast shortwave, which is expected to move quickly eastward across the region throughout the day. Convection along and ahead of this frontal band will likely remain too shallow for lightning production. However, mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of the initial frontal band, with moderate large-scale forcing for ascent persisting as well. This combination should result in deeper convective cores with a more cellular structure. Given the strong low- to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible, particularly around 00-04Z from the Mohawk Valley into the western Adirondacks.
