Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modified return flow will persist across the western Gulf late week, with a maritime tropical airmass reaching the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. This will support a return of severe-storm potential to mainly the western and central Gulf Coast States. Downstream evolution of a broad upper trough along the West Coast on D4/Thursday is the primary forecast challenge into the weekend. While the 00Z runs of the EC, GFS, and CMC have converged to greater alignment with the handling of the southern-stream shortwave trough across the Southwest and northern Mexico, run-to-run continuity remains poor. In addition, differing scenarios in other guidance such as a much slower cutoff low in the EC-AI, along with a large amount of spread across the GEFS/ECENS, all suggest a fairly unpredictable pattern continues. This is further supported by WPC's latest EPD mention of well below-average confidence in this weekend's forecast.
