SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps brief tornadoes may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across parts of coastal California. ... 01Z Update ... A strong short-wave trough/surface low continues to approach the California/Oregon coast. Later tonight a midlevel speed max will intensify, helping to deepen the surface low, which will drive a cold front eastward into California during the overnight and morning hours. Despite limited buoyancy, especially surface based, strengthening tropospheric flow and forced convection along the cold front may support isolated damaging wind gusts along the California coast. Should truly surface-based buoyancy develop and the forced convection can realize this buoyancy, forecast wind profiles along the coast exhibit sufficient deep-layer shear and low-level curvature to support brief tornadoes. The easternmost extent of this threat, especially across southern California, is delineated by the expected position of the surface-cold front at 12Z/4AM PT. The threat will continue past 12Z/4AM PT. ..Marsh.. 12/24/2025
