SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required for the severe-risk area. Adjustments to the thunder line were made across east/northeast TX to account for recent convective trends where weak elevated thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak mid-level wave. Isolated thunderstorms may continue across the greater Texarkana region over the next few hours before gradually diminishing by late afternoon. See the discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late tonight. Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless, transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for more details). Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. ...Coastal Carolinas... A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z Tuesday.
