SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Discussion... Midlevel short-wave trough, off the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to advance inland around 23/00z before deamplifying as it ejects into southwest Canada by the end of the period. Associated surface front will also progress inland around 23/00z, and cooling lower tropospheric profiles should lead to weak buoyancy along the WA/OR coast. Low-topped convection may generate a flash or two of lightning, but thunderstorms should otherwise remain quite sparse. Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northeast Mexico, lifting north in line with latest model guidance. Deep southeasterly flow across south TX will maintain moist profiles that should exhibit modest SBCAPE by late afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, and any convection that evolves across this region should remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2025
