SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and southern California Coast. ...California... Large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across the CA coast and move onshore Thursday and Thursday night. Within the broader trough, several embedded impulses will move onshore within strong southwesterly mid-level flow. One of these stronger impulses will start the day moving onshore over northern CA before quickly lifting north into southern OR. A strong surface low and cold front associated with this impulse will move quickly toward the coast prior to 12z Thursday. A band of low-topped storms along the front may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and persist for a few hours Thursday morning. Confidence in sufficient buoyancy for a sustained severe threat farther inland is low. Still, strong low to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado early along the coast. The severe threat will likely shift southeastward toward southern CA coast through the day as a second mid-level impulse and the main core of the upper trough approach. Strong onshore flow and persistent low-level moisture transport will allow for weak destabilization near the coast during the afternoon and continuing into the evening. 90+ kt of mid-level flow and locally enlarged hodographs could allow for occasional stronger storms capable of damaging gusts or a brief tornado despite the weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/23/2025
