SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central California Coast. ...Central California Coast... A broad upper low with multiple embedded disturbances will continue to linger over the West Coast Thursday. Ahead of the trough, a stream of moisture associated with an ongoing atmospheric river will continue overspreading much of California where numerous convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day and continuing into early Friday. Buoyancy will be weak, but MUCAPE peaking around 400 J/kg amidst the strong westerly flow could support a couple marginally severe storms. One of the more intense embedded features will likely move onshore across parts of central CA early in the period before lifting northward across southern WA Thursday evening. A strong offshore low and cold front will likely support a broken band of low-topped storms moving onshore early. Beneath a 50 to 60 knot southwesterly low-level jet, flow aloft may mix down to the surface supporting marginally severe gusts. Additionally, moderate shear in the lowest few km could support a brief tornado with any transiently organized storms. A second embedded impulse is forecast to approach the coast farther south into early Friday. Ascent ahead of the trough and a second weaker cold front will help support another band of low-topped storms. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding buoyancy for this round given the overnight timing and multiple rounds of rain prior. Still, some CAM guidance shows a narrow frontal band of low-topped storms capable of damaging gusts or a brief tornado moving onshore over the central Coast before 12z Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/24/2025
