SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies. Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025
