SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday through Monday night, but with little further amplification. At the same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, the primary embedded short wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes. In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard by late Monday night. Along this frontal zone, models do indicate the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday. However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 12/27/2025
