Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.
