SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued outlook. ..Smith.. 12/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... 16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the 925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond the next couple of hours.
