SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula beginning late this afternoon through the evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Late morning radar/satellite composite shows a rain shield and embedded convection along a west-east oriented, southward-sagging front over the north-central Gulf. This rain activity is possibly the result of a weak disturbance moving eastward across the northern Gulf of America within the base of a larger-scale mean trough over the central and eastern part of North America. This disturbance is forecast to move into north FL late today and east of the FL/GA coasts by mid-late evening. Considerable cloudiness will likely persist near/north of I-4 and combine with meager low to mid tropospheric lapse rates to thereby limit destabilization. However, a seasonably moist airmass will probably yield a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE prior to an increasing prevalence of showers/thunderstorms moving east from the Gulf into the west/northern portions of the Peninsula towards late this afternoon and evening. Ample mid- to high-level flow will support storm-scale rotation contingent on a sufficiently strong updraft or two developing within this zone of convection. The risk for localized strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the strongest storms, mainly during the 22-08 UTC period, as this threat shifts from northwest to south across the Peninsula. ..Smith/Barnes.. 12/07/2025
