SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...East TX into the lower MS Valley... A weak surface low is forecast to move across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN/lower OH Valleys on Tuesday, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the 50s to around 60 F) will spread from east TX into northern LA and southwest MS ahead of the front, though buoyancy is expected to remain weak, with MLCAPE generally remaining below 500 J/kg. Early-day convection that develops within a low-level warm advection regime may gradually deepen through the day, with isolated weak thunderstorms becoming possible. Additional isolated afternoon storm development cannot be ruled out near the front across east TX, though forcing is expected to remain weak in this area. The weak buoyancy and generally limited ascent across the warm sector are currently expected to limit severe potential. ..Dean.. 02/01/2026
