SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning. Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates, which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for the remainder of the period. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/04/2026
