SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20z Update... No changes are needed for the Day 1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper pattern is expected to undergo significant amplification today as a series of shortwave troughs act to deepen the upper troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, and the upper ridging over the western CONUS remains in place. Primary amplification will be associated with a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving through the western periphery of the upper troughing over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Continental airmass associated with these shortwaves will also act to reinforce the dry and stable conditions already in place across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception currently is across far south FL and the FL Keys, where remaining low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s) is supporting modest buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled with low-level convergence in the vicinity of the southeast FL coast and the Keys is fostering some deeper convective cores. A few lightning flashes have recently been observed near the middle Keys, and the expectation is for occasional flashes to persist from the Keys into the far southeast FL Coast throughout the day. Lastly, broad ascent is anticipated across the Southeast tonight/early tomorrow, resulting from a combination of lift associated with the southernmost shortwave moving through upper trough and lift attendant to another shortwave moving from TX into the Lower MS Valley. Dry and stable low-levels will keep the region free of sustained deep convection, but some forecast soundings do show limited and shallow buoyancy above 700 mb. As such, there is low potential for a flash or two across this region.
