Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low. Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.
