SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America during this period. However, it appears that the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development, will likely remain offshore through at least this period. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026
