SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast... Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into the Southeast states through Saturday evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells. ...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts... A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally, 40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts. ..Moore.. 01/02/2026
