SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Scattered elevated thunderstorms remain possible over portions of the Southeast tonight associated with the advancing shortwave trough. Weak buoyancy should largely limit the severe risk. To the west, isolated thunderstorms are also possible over portions of northern coastal CA. Increasingly strong westerly flow aloft could support an occasional stronger gust with an advancing frontal rain band. But again, weak buoyancy will likely preclude a greater-than sporadic severe threat through tonight. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/ ...Southeast States... Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle, with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight. The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame. ...Northern/Central California... A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts, but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain limited.
