SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the modest and compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states. However, some further southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies through middle and lower Missouri Valley. Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic boundary layer. However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night. ...Southern Florida... A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance, suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas. This appears possible in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026
