SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. ..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026
