SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, it still appears that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley through this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and currently in the form of a mid-level low as it digs toward Baja, is forecast to undergo considerable deformation while being forced eastward, then northeastward, across the northern Mexican Plateau into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night. This is being preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity. While highest surface pressures centered across the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes at the outset of the period are forecast to continue to fall while shifting northeastward, it appears that the residual Arctic air mass will impede significant inland surface cyclogenesis. Models do still indicate modest deepening of surface troughing in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley (as well as in another near/offshore of the Carolina coast) by late Saturday through Saturday night. Elevated moisture return above the cold air to the north and northwest of this feature appears likely to be accompanied by weak destabilization. However, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization along the surface trough axis, inland across southeastern Louisiana through southeastern/east central Mississippi and adjacent western Alabama by 12Z Sunday, appears unlikely. This is expected to minimize the risk for severe weather. ...Southern Great Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Convection allowing output and other guidance suggest that the most substantive potential for thunderstorm development will largely focus just to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, near/inland of mid/upper Texas Gulf coastal areas through Louisiana and central/southwestern Mississippi Saturday through Saturday night.. Layers of developing weak conditional and convective instability further aloft, and to the west through north, might become supportive of convective development capable of producing lightning, anywhere from the Texas South Plains and Big Country into the Mid South. The extent of this potential remains a bit unclear due to spread evident in the model output. However, further adjustments to the 10 percent thunder line may be needed in subsequent outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 01/23/2026
