SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk. ...Synopsis... A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast, northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Gulf Coast States... Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the moisture return through the day. Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the day as the main ascent lifts away to the north. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
