SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Portions of the Southeast States... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf. Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS. Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast. Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026
