SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys... At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy. Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent. Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period. Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave development farther south near LA. Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast) will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear (with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central MS. Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon, where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and severe hail. ..Weinman.. 01/08/2026
