MD 1068 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WY…WESTERN NE…EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Areas affected…southeast WY…western NE…eastern CO and far
western KS
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 292027Z – 292230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected into early
evening. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main concerns with this
activity. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms are intensifying this afternoon away from
higher terrain over the adjacent high Plains. Southeasterly
low-level winds around 20-30 kt have allowed dewpoints to climb into
the upper 40s to low 50s F. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse
rates are further supporting MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. Vertical
shear is expected to increase with eastward extent toward evening,
and thunderstorm clusters may become better organized with time.
Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud
thermodynamic profiles will support strong downdrafts and
thunderstorm gusts of 55-70 mph are expected. Additionally, very
steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear and
instability for at least briefly robust updrafts may also support
large hail. Some potential for a couple of landspouts also will
exist into early evening across parts of eastern CO where backed
low-level winds are present in an area of low-level convergence near
a surface low/trough.
A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for portions of the MCD area.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…DDC…UNR…GLD…PUB…BOU…CYS…
LAT…LON 43560553 43470370 42970257 40860159 40480150 37450140
37100186 37000231 37010349 37020417 39180451 42330499
43560553
