MD 0107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA…SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161052Z - 161315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are expected this morning across
parts western and central South Carolina. Weather watch issuance
remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a squall line
across parts of central Georgia extending northeastward into far
western South Carolina. The line is being supported by strong
large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and by
forcing along a fast-moving cold front. Ahead of the line,
instability is very weak, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F across
western South Carolina and northeast Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWP
at Greenville/Spartanburg has about 85 knot of 0-6 km shear with 40
to 50 knots of south-southwesterly flow located just above the
surface. An isolated wind-damage threat will be possible with the
stronger cells within the line. Given the very strong low-level
shear, meso-scale vorticies will be possible in the line with
embedded cells that remain surface-based. However, forecast
soundings in far western South Carolina have a sharp near surface
temperature inversion, which should keep any severe threat isolated
and localized.
..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 35208161 35168219 35048258 34768279 34268314 33768337
33478343 33058296 33018208 33158120 33408066 33838035
34298023 34458026 34728042 34848055 35088106 35208161
35208161
