MD 1076 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Areas affected…northwest Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 301355Z – 301530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Sporadic strong gusts of 40-50 mph are possible with a
line of thunderstorms developing southeast through the morning.
DISCUSSION…A line of storms will continue to develop
south/southeast across the Texas South Plains/northwest Texas
vicinity this morning. Recent observations from the West Texas
Mesonet indicated gusts of 40-50 mph have occurred near Wellington,
while KCDS gusted to 63 mph. This activity will continue to move
into an unstable airmass characterized by low to mid 60s F dewpoints
and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Portions of the downstream airmass have
likely been impacted by another cluster of storms that moved over
this area and is now located of north Texas. At least weak low-level
inhibition is evident in regional 12z RAOBs and latest SPC
Mesoanalysis. As a result of impacts from prior convection and a
still weakly capped environment, expect convection to largely remain
sub-severe in this short term, with gusts mostly in the 40-50 mph
range possible, though isolated locally stronger gusts will be
possible. A watch is not expected at this time.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OUN…SJT…LUB…AMA…
LAT…LON 34810053 34949973 34709940 34339937 33649954 33249985
33170074 33280163 33480198 33870207 34200200 34450151
34810053
