MD 1103 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024
Areas affected…NE Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 010811Z – 011015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Potential for isolated large hail should persist through
sunrise with a few elevated supercells across the western Nebraska
Panhandle vicinity.
DISCUSSION…A trio of elevated supercells have formed as a result
of a well-advertised overnight increase in low-level moisture
northward over the central High Plains. The northwestern most of
this trio, near Alliance, appears to be the deepest updraft. With
MUCAPE having increased to about 1000 J/kg coupled with moderate
northwesterly deep-layer shear, the threat for large hail will
probably persist for a few hours through at least sunrise. Low-level
flow appears to be relatively modest, yielding some uncertainty on
how long the severe hail threat will last. 00Z HREF signal suggests
relatively shorter-lived supercells should be expected, although the
00Z NSSL-MPAS runs indicated potential for a longer-lived, more
intense storm occurring.
..Grams/Thompson.. 06/01/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LBF…BOU…CYS…
LAT…LON 42660296 42330220 41930131 41520105 41100092 40930121
40970205 41140265 41730336 42100373 42470385 42660296
