MD 1181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN MARYLAND…FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY…DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Areas affected…portions of central and eastern Virginia into
eastern Maryland…far southern New Jersey…Delaware
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 061745Z – 061915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…The severe threat should gradually increase through the
afternoon, as thunderstorms become more widespread. 50-65 mph gusts
are the main threat, and are expected to become abundant enough to
warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the next few
hours.
DISCUSSION…A small mid-level impulse embedded within modest
westerlies aloft is traversing the central Appalachians, and is
poised to approach the Atlantic Coastline this afternoon. As this
occurs, thunderstorms should continue to increase in both coverage
and intensity through the afternoon. Strong surface heating has
supported low-level lapse rates to reach 7 C/km (per 17Z
mesoanalysis), and additional heating should further boost these
lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. This will promote efficient
evaporative cooling and subsequent 50-65 mph gust potential with any
strong storm that can become sustained. A WW issuance may be needed
in the next few hours to address the damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PHI…AKQ…LWX…RNK…
LAT…LON 36867951 38787778 39647685 39677577 39507505 39037491
38247531 37327600 36807673 36647817 36867951
