MD 1183 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Areas affected…interior central Florida
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 061952Z – 062045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Increasingly widespread strong thunderstorm development
appears likely across interior central Florida, including the
Greater Orlando vicinity, through 6-7 PM EDT. Stronger storms may
pose a risk for frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, marginally
severe hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION…The initiation of widely scattered thunderstorms is
underway along the the inland advancing sea-breezes across the
Florida Peninsula. This is occurring in the presence of weak (10-15
kt) west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Across north central
portions of the peninsula, downward mixing of the westerly flow to
the surface has contributed to the inland advance of the sea-breeze
from the Gulf coast, while the sea-breeze off the Atlantic is being
maintained closer to the Atlantic coast.
Across the interior peninsula, temperatures have heated into the mid
90s to around 100F, contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg. With some further inland advance of the Atlantic
sea-breeze (and associated lower/mid 70s F dew points), CAPE may
increase further and maximize along its leading edge near the
interface with the stronger heating.
It appears that increasing low-level convergence along the colliding
sea-breezes may focus intensifying and increasingly widespread
thunderstorm development along a corridor west of Daytona Beach
through the Greater Orlando area and into the Avon Park/Sebring
vicinities by 22-23Z. Initial stronger cells may pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and locally strong downbursts, before gusty
winds along consolidating outflows becomes more prominent.
..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…JAX…
LAT…LON 28438190 29688147 28968096 27708083 27198105 26948109
26858124 27308191 28438190
