MD 1190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM…SOUTHEAST CO…SOUTHWEST KS…AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024
Areas affected…Portions of northeast NM…southeast CO…southwest
KS…and the OK/TX Panhandles
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 072040Z – 072245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms posing a threat for severe winds and hail
may prompt watch issuance this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Convection has recently increased in coverage and
intensity across the southern/central High Plains along/near a
surface trough. A rather hot and well-mixed airmass is present
along/ahead of this activity, as robust daytime heating has allowed
surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and lower 100s.
Severe/damaging winds will probably be the main threat with this
activity as it spreads east-southeastward through the rest of the
afternoon, and continuing into the early evening. Some of these wind
gusts could be significant (75+ mph) given very large
temperature-dewpoint spreads from recent surface observations and
near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through low/mid levels. Stronger
deep-layer shear over southeast CO into southwest KS may support
some threat for a supercell or two, with associated risk for large
hail in addition to the severe/damaging wind threat. Given current
observational trends, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to
address this increasing severe risk.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DDC…AMA…PUB…ABQ…
LAT…LON 36650475 37430301 38070174 38070034 37330017 36410061
35760301 35930429 36210476 36650475
