MD 1198 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024
Areas affected…Portions of south-central/southeast NE and
north-central/northeast KS
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397…
Valid 080212Z – 080345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
continues.
SUMMARY…Severe gusts of 70-80 mph and isolated large hail remain
possible with a southward-moving complex of storms in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 397.
DISCUSSION…Latest radar data from KUEX shows a gradually
upscale-growing complex of storms tracking southward at around 30-35
kt across south-central Nebraska. While a consolidated cold pool
appears to be intensifying, intense/separated supercell structures
remain evident along/immediately behind the gust front. Given these
persistent separated supercells and a favorable supercell wind
profile downstream (upwards of 70 kt of effective shear and a
large/looping hodograph), instances of large to very large hail up
to around 2.75 inches remain possible in the near term. However, the
overall severe risk should be transitioning to a damaging-wind
threat, owing to the gradual upscale growth. This upscale growth
should be aided by increasingly orthogonal deep-layer shear to the
consolidated cold pool and a strengthening southerly low-level jet
(around 40 kt sampled by downstream VWP). If more robust upscale
growth does occur, 70-80 mph gusts could become more common.
..Weinman.. 06/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OAX…TOP…ICT…GID…
LAT…LON 40529938 40819808 40899741 40849665 40609592 39959569
39399622 39099816 39189897 39519940 39899953 40259955
40529938
