SPC MD 121

SPC MD 121


Mesoscale Discussion 0121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected…central Texas

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15…

Valid 110726Z – 110930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15

SUMMARY…A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread
east-northeastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor of north
central and central Texas through 3-5 AM CST. This activity may
continue to pose some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, mainly
near/north of the Junction through Austin vicinities.

DISCUSSION…Stronger flow around the 500 mb level is still nosing
into areas near/north of the Texas Big Bend. But a more modest
preceding speed maximum, which likely has provided support for the
evolving ongoing cluster of storms, is forecast to continue
propagating north-northeastward across central Texas through 09-11Z.

The associated convection likely will remain rooted within lift
associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, above cold
surface-based air now nosing south-southeast of the Texas South
Plains. North of the Junction/Kerrville/Austin/College Station
vicinities, a more modestly cool and stable near-surface layer is
not likely to modify much in advance of the convection. However,
elevated instability and cloud-bearing layer shear may remain
sufficient to continue supporting some risk for severe hail and
gusty winds, particularly near the southern flank of the convective
system passing near/north of the Junction and Austin vicinities.
Farther south, where mid/upper forcing for ascent becomes more
negligible, warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air is
forecast to inhibit convective development.

..Kerr.. 02/11/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 31429922 32429854 32119668 30629761 29989967 30610013

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