
MD 1218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Areas affected…parts of northwestern through north central
Arkansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 092010Z – 092215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Intensifying convection, including one or two storms at
least occasionally taking on supercell structure, appears likely
through 4-6 PM CDT. This may pose a risk for large hail, locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some potential for producing a
tornado.
DISCUSSION…Deepening convective development, including recent
initiation of thunderstorm activity, is ongoing northwest of
Russellville AR. This is where low-level convergence has become
maximized near the intersection of a southward advancing cold front
and the stalling western flank of convective outflow from overnight
convection.
Beneath 30-35 kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, surface
temperatures are warming through the lower/mid 90s F in a narrow
corridor just to the southwest of the outflow boundary, extending
across and east-southeast of the Little Rock area. This is
occurring beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air, where
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears to be
contributing to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.
It is possible that this is being aided by forcing for ascent
associated with a subtle mid/upper perturbation. Regardless, there
appears sufficient deep-layer shear to support intensifying
convection and the evolution of at least transient supercell
structures with increasing inflow of the unstable boundary-layer
air. This likely will pose a risk for severe hail, locally strong
surface gusts and perhaps at least some risk for a tornado while
slowly propagating east-southeastward through 4-6 PM CDT.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/09/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MEG…LZK…TSA…
LAT…LON 35829425 35949391 36079321 35819217 35339092 34389147
35079328 35209385 35479434 35829425