MD 1233 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Areas affected…far south Florida
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 111938Z – 112145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A brief tornado will be possible through the late
afternoon hours across the Everglades. Watch issuance will not be
needed.
DISCUSSION…Convective cells embedded with a broad stratiform rain
shield across the FL Everglades have taken on supercellular
characteristics over the past few hours per reflectivity/velocity
imagery from KAMX. Broad/weak, transient mesocyclones have been
observed mainly south of the I-75 corridor before weakening as they
migrate into a well-established cold pool north of the interstate.
Despite the expansive precipitation shield across the region, ample
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s) is supporting
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which will remain sufficient to support a
few deeper convective towers. Additionally, regional VWPs continue
to show around 50-100 m2/s2 0-1 SRH with a slight increase in 1 km
winds up to 30-35 knots noted over the past hour or so. While not
substantial, this low-level shear has been sufficient to support
some degree of low-level rotation, which may result in a brief
tornado within the Everglades region through late afternoon.
..Moore/Smith.. 06/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…
LAT…LON 25198067 25398110 25638124 25818144 25988151 26118134
26138104 26098075 25938022 25778018 25498026 25348040
25258044 25198067
