MD 1240 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024
Areas affected…southern Wisconsin into far northern Illinois
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 122151Z – 130015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A corridor of strong to locally damaging gusts may extend
across the rest of southern Wisconsin, and perhaps into far northern
Illinois.
DISCUSSION…A well-defined MCV is moving rapidly eastward across
southwest WI, with periodically strong cores along the leading
outflow. KOVS in southwest WI measured a 56 kt gust at 2107Z.
Overall moisture and instability is weak. However, temperatures have
warmed into the 90s F, with steep low-level lapse rates present.
Visible imagery further shows Cu fields across IL, south of the
cirrus to the north. Given southwesterly surface winds, sufficient
warming may remain ahead of the MCV to support periodic upticks in
intensity despite limited moisture. Strong gusts should continue to
be the main threat, though a watch is not expected.
..Jewell.. 06/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…MKX…DVN…ARX…
LAT…LON 43159020 42908776 42558767 42208790 42288834 42468964
42639032 42979045 43159020
