MD 1314 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Areas affected…Parts of western/central MN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 180436Z – 180630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible into the
early overnight hours.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of strong storms is ongoing late this evening
across parts of southwest/west-central MN, within a warm-advection
regime driven by an intense (50+ kt as sampled by the KFSD VWP)
low-level jet. This region is along the northeastern periphery of
the EML, with MUCAPE generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range.
Effective shear of 40+ kt may continue to support occasional
elevated supercells into the early overnight hours, accompanied by a
threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/damaging gusts.
..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DLH…MPX…FGF…FSD…ABR…
LAT…LON 44579592 45759636 46829665 47319538 47419393 46919367
46329344 45909364 45349408 44799481 44479581 44579592
