MD 1352 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Areas affected…southern New England and the Northeast
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 211538Z – 211745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered, generally pulse-type thunderstorms will likely
develop through this afternoon across parts of the Northeast into
southern New England. Sporadic downbursts capable of strong gusts
from 45-60 mph should yield localized tree damage. The relatively
disorganized/marginal nature of the threat should preclude severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…Initial thunderstorm development is underway, mainly
across parts of NY, along/ahead of a southward-sagging
west/east-oriented cold front. Additional storms will likely develop
southward over the higher terrain of central PA and eastward across
southern New England over the next few hours. The overall
kinematic/thermodynamic environment appears to be more subdued
relative to yesterday in eastern NY and New England. Modest
mid-level westerlies are generally aligned with the frontal
orientation and predominately to the cool side of the boundary. Weak
deep-layer shear will dominate the warm-moist sector to the south.
With weaker mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should largely range from
1500-2000 J/kg. While small to perhaps marginally severe hail around
1 inch diameter is possible, the predominant threat should be from
localized strong gusts in downbursts.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…GYX…BOX…BTV…OKX…ALY…PHI…BGM…BUF…
CTP…PBZ…
LAT…LON 43547563 43467438 43167210 42797096 42207106 41847095
41357173 40957341 40987574 40717686 39917830 39897912
40307912 42657736 43547563
