MD 1375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024
Areas affected…portions of eastern Utah into western Colorado
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 222032Z – 222300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…The threat for isolated severe wind and hail is increasing
across portions of eastern UT into western CO. A WW issuance is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity
across eastern UT/western CO along the entrance region of a 300 mb
jet streak, where a well-mixed boundary layer is now in place.
Latest MRMS-MESH radar data suggests some of the stronger storms may
already be producing at least marginally severe (i.e. 1 inch
diameter) hail. Surface temperatures approaching the upper 80s F
beneath 9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest
low-level curvature but considerable mid-level elongation, which
will promote continued multicell/supercell development through the
afternoon. The strongest storms will be accompanied by some severe
wind/hail threat. However, the severe threat should remain isolated,
and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…GJT…SLC…
LAT…LON 37901173 40281098 40861015 40900904 40550753 39370717
38010711 37390795 37130931 37091013 37231119 37901173
