MD 1494 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Areas affected…southern and central Montana
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 302012Z – 302215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across
portions of Montana with an increase in threat for damaging winds
and large hail through the afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage
across southwestern Montana. Recent radar trends have shown an
uptick in lightning activity. Daytime heating across Montana has led
to temperatures in the mid to upper 70 to low 80s across southern,
central, and eastern Montana. Surface objective analysis indicates
steep low to mid-level lapse rates in an environment characterized
by MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Instability is progged to increase
through the afternoon, along with large scale lift as enhanced
upper-level flow overspreads the region from the west. As a result,
deep layer shear will also increase, aiding in more organized storms
that will tend to grow upscale through time and pose a risk of
damaging wind and some instances of large hail. Trends will be
monitored, with potential for a watch to be needed in this region in
the next 1-2 hrs.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BYZ…GGW…TFX…PIH…MSO…
LAT…LON 45161317 46501182 47480909 47490759 46990707 45810612
45630624 45260973 45211076 44791177 44401275 44681314
45161317
