MD 1509 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024
Areas affected…portions of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 012343Z – 020115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…The severe threat will gradually increase as the warm
front approaches and the low-level airmass destabilizes through the
evening. Severe wind and hail are the predominant threats, though a
tornado or two could also occur. A WW issuance will eventually be
needed.
DISCUSSION…Several thunderstorms are progressing eastward across
NE, including a supercell that is traversing the warm frontal zone
with a history of brief tornadoes. The surface warm front is
expected to continue drifting northward with time as low-level
warm-air advection increases in tandem with the strengthening of the
low-level jet. Initially elevated buoyancy will advect over eastern
NE into western IA with large, curved hodographs. The stronger,
longer-lived updrafts that form should become multicellular and
perhaps supercellular, capable of severe wind and hail. The tornado
potential will be largely dependent on the degree of
surface-based/boundary-layer destabilization can materialize this
evening. A WW issuance will eventually be needed as storms across
central NE impinge on the eastern bounds of Tornado Watch 496.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DMX…EAX…OAX…GID…
LAT…LON 41649799 41939721 42029599 41889483 41509414 40929412
40459464 40149553 40099625 40169697 40369766 41649799
