MD 1533 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY…FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024
Areas affected…northern Kentucky…far southern Indiana
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 041630Z – 041900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…A corridor of scattered damaging gusts or marginal hail
potential exists over much of central and northern Kentucky and
toward the Ohio River.
DISCUSSION…Within a weak surface trough and on the southern
periphery of the earlier rain/outflow, an extremely moist air mass
continues to heat and destabilize. Mid 70s F dewpoints exist along
with GPW PWAT values over 2.25″. Meanwhile, strong heating exists
south of the outflow/frontal zone, with warming into the lower 90s
F.
Primarily westerly flow exists across the area, except
west/southwest within the boundary layer. As such, little northward
movement in the existing surface theta-e gradient is anticipated
over the next few hours.
VWPs indicate 35+ kt speeds at 700 mb, with around 50 kt at 500 mb.
As a result, developing robust storms now over southern IN and
western KY are likely to intensify and perhaps expand a bit in N/S
coverage through the afternoon. Ample PWAT to support downbursts,
steepening low-level lapse rates, and favorable low to midlevel mean
wind speeds all support a developing damaging wind threat, and a
watch may be needed.
..Jewell/Gleason.. 07/04/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…RLX…JKL…ILN…LMK…PAH…
LAT…LON 37518361 37558684 37578711 37638730 37978688 38348659
38598628 38748569 38768439 38778332 38438292 37988290
37648298 37518361
