MD 1543 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Areas affected…central Nebraska into much of western Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 061701Z – 061900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Storms will generally increase in coverage over the next
several hours from south-central Nebraska into northwest and western
Kansas. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible.
DISCUSSION…Beneath cool midlevel temperatures and in a zone of
modest warm advection, isolated cells producing hail have formed
over central NE. This area is north of the surface warm front, which
diffusely extends east/west just north of the KS/NE border.
Low-level moisture is generally modest with upper 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints. However, cool temperatures aloft will combine with
continued heating to produce MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and overall
steepening lapse rates.
Surface observations already indicate substantial warming and
boundary-layer mixing ahead of the developing low near the CO/KS/NE
border, with a tight temperature gradient near the warm front.
Give the existence of lift near the warm front, and continued
destabilization, it seems unlikely that the ongoing storms will
dissipate, and thus a hail threat may persist with these cells.
A rapid ramp-up of storm coverage is then anticipated later this
afternoon, perhaps by 19Z-20Z along the front. This initial
convection will likely produce severe hail initially, with
increasing damaging wind threat as a linear mode takes shape. Shear
profiles appear to favor rightward-moving storms over western KS
through the afternoon, while eastward moving storms are most likely
along the warm front into southern NE.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OAX…GID…LBF…DDC…GLD…
LAT…LON 41659864 41559800 40949752 40389783 39619906 37940035
37910122 38160171 39370175 40090154 41050042 41439980
41659864
