MD 0156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Areas affected…portions of central Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi and far southwest Tennessee
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 230012Z – 230215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated strong to severe storms may pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and gusty winds this evening. A watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION…As of 00z, regional radar analysis showed isolated
thunderstorms over parts of central and northern AR. Over the past
30-45 min, a few of these storms have shown occasional weak
supercell characteristics and deeper reflectively cores. The
environment is still relatively limited with only 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective shear. While not overly robust, the
environment should remain capable of supporting marginal storm
organization for a few hours this evening as storms move
southeastward. Mid-level lapse rates around 7 c/km and 25-30 kt of
effective shear may allow for marginally severe hail and or strong
outflow winds from the strongest storms. The severe threat should
gradually wane through the later evening hours as the loss of
diurnal heating and nocturnal stabilization work to weaken ongoing
storms. Given the limited potential for storm organization, and the
isolated nature of the severe threat, a weather watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/23/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MEG…JAN…LZK…TSA…
LAT…LON 35049424 35359424 35889333 35869222 35779123 35759110
35258993 34898958 33918983 33359061 33419208 34379390
35049424
