MD 1569 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA…CENTRAL MARYLAND…NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024
Areas affected…South-central Pennsylvania…central
Maryland…northern/central Virginia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 101652Z – 101845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Widely scattered to scattered storms will pose a threat of
mainly damaging winds and a tornado or two. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely for parts of Virginia into south-central
Pennsylvania.
DISCUSSION…A very moist airmass is in place across the
Mid-Atlantic. Dewpoints are in generally in the low/mid 70s F.
Morning observed soundings from the region suggest even limited
heating would lead to surface-based destabilization. Current surface
observations already show temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F
which should be sufficient. Visible satellite shows a few updrafts
beginning to deepen within the Blue Ridge. Modest mid-level ascent
will occur this afternoon, particularly for northern Virginia into
south-central Pennsylvania. Coupled with the approach of a cold
front from the west, widely scattered to scattered storms are
expected. The greatest potential for supercells will be in
south-central Pennsylvania into central Maryland/northern Virginia
where effective shear will be 35-40 kts. Farther south, multicells
will be the predominant mode. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazard this afternoon. A low-end tornado threat will also be
present for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania, where
low-level shear will be slightly greater nearer to the surface low.
This is also supported by KCCX/KLWX VAD data. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, though uncertainty is
greater with southern extent.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/10/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…CTP…LWX…RNK…
LAT…LON 38097711 37257791 37107913 37297948 37917931 38537884
39837828 40317753 40327686 39697656 38977666 38097711
